Thursday, May 15, 2008

The political possibilities

Updates: A reader has questioned whether the barely 3-mth old govt can call for fresh polls. Here's the answer from M-Star. Here in Malaysiakini too.

It is still the hottest talk at the Dewan Rakyat, at least at the MPs' lounge, lobby and canteen. Despite the denials of some Sabah MPs of defecting and some openly telling the press that they have been offered millions of ringgit, the speculation simply refuses to go away. But let's look at some political possibilities.
If enough BN MPs want to jump to Pakatan Rakyat, and should the government looks like it would fall, the likelihood is that the BN would dissolve Parliament and call for fresh elections. That means we have to go through the entire process again. No political party that has been in government for 50 years would allow their power to be snatched away without a fight. It's a risk to seek a fresh mandate - the BN could end up worse or better - but it's certainly a better option than to be toppled due to party-hopping.
Iif fresh elections are held, Anwar Ibrahim will surely contest. It is unlikely that Anwar will come in as a senator as speculated. The Federal Constitution is clear. Under Article 43 (2) (a), the King shall appoint as PM a member of the Lower House, who in his judgement is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House. That's the only specific requirement as it says nothing about ethnicity, gender or region although by convention, ethnic and political realities come into play. Stay tuned.


Anonymous said...

How can the Bn call for fresh elections when it has already lost its majority in parliament through defections? If there is to be any call for dissolution of parliament it is to be by the PR which has forced the BN into opposition. Anwar may not be PM at this stage as he's not yet in parliament, assuming the defections take place then. But he can easily assign Wan Azizah his wife to be the new PM and then he can come in through a by-election. Alternatively Wan Azizah can dissolve parliament and call for a snap general election in which case Anwar can contest. But I doubt PR will dissolve parliament should it manage to gain power through BN defections.

Anonymous said...

dear writer,

initially people voted for PKR , PAS and DAP because they are fade up of the BN and mad at our weak PM.

But i think that has changed,,Malaysians actually sees and feels Pakatan Rakyat as a better party and would sincerely serve the rakyat.

So you're saying Bn may call for re-election? Come on they won't do that. They will be smashed by Pakatan Rakyat and loose badly.


Anonymous said...

Datuk Wong,

Before any defections take place, the PM can seek an audience with the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament.

Let there be another round in which the winners take all.

To defect through buying people over or through blackmail, tak manis lah. Pakatan Rakyat cannot claim the moral high ground if it wins power like this.

If a fresh general election is called, players like Ku Li can also offer his leadership by standing as "Umno Asal" (spirit of Semangat46, minus the nomination quotas, the unfair rules and communist-party like regulations that Umno is being subjected to now.)

Malays who still have hope in Umno but don't want all the bodoh sombong and corrupt leaders, can choose to vote Ku Li and the reformers.

Maybe they can also align themselves with the BN component parties that have suddenly found their long lost testicles - MCA, Gerakan and MIC etc2.

As for Pakatan Rakyat, voters who feel that the Pakatan Rakyat is the best option for the nation's future, have a fresh chance to give them a clean sweep to rule for the next five years.

If they make a mess of things, we kick them out lah. Apa macam, boleh kah?

Ex-rumour monger, now fish monger.

Anonymous said...

There are many things that Pakatan representatives have done right so far. No fancy cars, expensive renovations, travelling economy, etc, will certainly go down well with any voter, even if he or she supports BN component parties. But I find it hard to give PR the same kind of leeway if it were to engage in encouraging the YBs to hop over, whether thorough a financial carrot, or even for free. If one were to analyse the election results, when virtual unknowns won, it is clear that this election was clearly about party platforms (ideology, vision, etc) and not about individuals. The individuals therefore cannot claim any "personal" weightage for their win. So if people vote along party lines, there is absolutely no moral justification for those so voted to switch. The only reason one could do so if there is a serious issue of principle where you cannot honestly debate or vote in Parliament because of your party affiliation. As an example, supposing your party champions the death penalty, and you, because of some religious revival, suddenly find that you cannot support the death penalty, then, perhaps there is a case for you to switch, or to step down. But to switch simply because you want to be part of this game of taking over a government after the mandate has been established is wrong. PR leaders, many of whom ride the moral high horse must examine themselves why they are either supporting or keeping silent over these attempts to persuade BN YBs to cross.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

i say go for it..lets have this decided once and for all. right now, it seems things are in a limbo. Neither the PR nor the BN are in a commanding position, thus its like a "stalemate". The federal government is doing its utmost to make life difficult for the PR in the 5 states. The BN is unsure how to govern given the new developments and scenario. It appears in our country, the only way to rule is all or nothing. So, lets call for fresh elections and have the electorate decide ... to kick out the BN decisively and permanently. Then we can start to dream of a NEW MALAYSIA

Sarjan low said...

It's certainly possible and it is BN @ Pak Lah last kept trump card.

Yet i doubt Pak Lah will use it...

Anonymous said...

To defect through buying people over or through blackmail, tak manis lah. Pakatan Rakyat cannot claim the moral high ground if it wins power like this.

aiyohhh "tak manis plak"..!

sapo mau manis? The concrete barrier at the tollgate cannot be removed - just 1 st00pid concrete slab pon tak bolih buat apa apa..
what is he point of running state garment when MONEY IS MISSING, FILES ARE MISSING, COMPUTERS ARE MISSING. And the polis anjings are biting the wrong people all the time. The AG is a slime ball holding various people by the bola.

Hey it is no time for 'manis' because this stalemate is killing the rakyat. Either give everything back to the BN animal or take over the Federal Government.

But even when this corrupted government collapses - i can guarantee mountains of $$$$$$$ is just going to grow wings overnight.

A failed nation - Rustam Sani's famous words..

Anonymous said...

If the king doesn't give his consent, Pak Lah can't call for a dissolution of parliament. Don't forget that.

lanaibeach said...

Dissolving Parliament is Agong’s prerogative
No PM can do it without Agong’s consent
So it is really up to Agong to decide
Any fresh election so soon after GE12

UMNO/BN must face reality
The coalition isn’t getting it rosy
Time of yesteryears gone
Past glory nothing to shout now

The can of worms itching out a living
Letting the people know how it happened
The stage shows have gone on too long
Now a new stage and show must be played

The people interests come first
All those years ago they got seconds
Only the elite leaders, families and friends
They get it all through many plans……
Privatization one after another
The list is still compiling as I pen this

Promises win or lose
It must be given
Here it breaks so often
Roping voters’ necks in PR states
Aren’t we Malaysians?

Our taxes gone
For these leaders to divide as they please
Is it fair of country’s wealth unjustly distributed?
If BN leaders want to call for snap election
People will vote them out without hesitation

Anonymous said...

Kita memang akui situasi plolitik negara telah banyak berubah selepas tsunami PRU baru - baru.Selepas PRU banyak pihak sudah mula mengamalkan reformasi alaf baru dengan mengunakkan pendetakan atau APPROACH yang tertentu dan terkini.Selepas 50 tahun Merdeka kita mula alami satu pembaharuan politik yang begitu mendadak.Sekiranya komponen BN dengan lantang menyuarakan mengenai Kongsi Kuasa dan sebagainya semuanya berubah apabila BN alami kekalahan yang teruk.Semua parti parti komponen BN menuding jari antara satu sama lain - memang sesuatu yang cukup luar biasa.Bila dalam keadaan senang semuanya bercakap besar dan ambil peluang dan menikmati segala kemewahan tatapi kena sikit dah nak mula bising - itu tak betul ini tak betul?Inikah dikatakan semangat BN? Cukup memalukan.Mereka kena belajar sikap Bersatu Kita Teguh Bercerai Kita Roboh.
Pihak pembangkang pula bertindak seolah - olah merekalah yang telah membangunkan Malaysia selama 50 tahun.Mereka kena akui bahawa segala kejayaan ini telah dilaksanakan oleh Kerajaan BN sebelum ini.Jangan asyik nak bercakap pasal isu lompat parti dan juga sibuk nak tubuh kerajaan.Sekiranya ia berlaku ianya tetap berlaku kerana rakyat juga telah memberikan mandat kepada pihak pembangkang di 5 negeri .Cuba buktikan kemampuan anda di sana.Kita sudah serik dgn karenah Pakatan Rakyat yang juga terlalu retorik sepanjang masa.Rakyat Mahukan Kesejahteraan bukanya retorik anda seperti BN sebelum ini.Singkirkanlah Karpal Singh- yang banyak buang masa kita.Kita jangan layan pemimpin seperti dia kerana hanya bercakap besar.Apa jasa Karpal Singh kepada negara dan rakyat.Cukupplah.Kami sudah bosan.Sudah dua bulan Pakatan Rakyat menang- mereka sepatutnya bertindak , bergerak dengan gaya mereka yang tersendiri dengan lebih efesyen dan efektif.Ini tidak Anwar Ibrahim hanya sibuk nak jadi PM sahaja.Silap - silap Pakatan Rakyat yang tumbang.Jangan terlalu angkuh.gunakan peluang yang telah diberikan oleh rakyat dengan baik.

Anonymous said...

Pakatan Rakyat kena tunjukkan keikhlasan mereka dan perjungan mereka di dalam perkhidmatan yang cemerlang kepada rakyat.Jangan buang masa dengan aksi lompat si katak lompat.Kalau katak - katak nak lompat tentu akan berlaku.

Anonymous said...

It's definitely better to have Anwar Ibrahim than a bunch of ULTRAS like Mahathir and co. Mukhriz said May 13 is a "blessing", according to Malaysiakini. He said it's good that the tragedy led to "good" like the NEP. Oh GOD, pls rid us of these bunch of ULTRAS.

Anonymous said...

How will the majority of Malays who have been fed by BN thru so many areas of their lives suddenly give them up?? 50 years is a long time and it has taken root.

The non Malays on the other hand have suffered & sacrificed much though they put on a "brave and wouldnt die face". They have been going the extra mile daily to keep their lives in order. Only now do I see a glimmer of hope in PK.

The present bunch of executives are all in for the money & power. They and their employees are incompetant & foolish yet so arrogant & snorty. Go in to the Govt Depts, Banks and Universities and you will know what I mean.

Lets strive for the next NEW 50 years...undo the bias policies and roll out new meaningful ones for all Malaysians. PK boleh and PK must!!! Fresh elections or cross overs, I welcome all !!!