Anwar likely to be back as MP before trial begins

It is almost certain that Anwar Ibrahim will win the by-election hands down. Barring any political miracle for the BN, Anwar is likely to win with a bigger majority at Permatang Pauh. With polling day on Aug 26, he would have been elected as MP before his case is mentioned on Sept 10. In fact, by then he would have been the Opposition Leader. Lim Kit Siang has said that is the consensus of Pakatan MPs. But of course, his supporters would say he would be on his way to become Prime Minister. No matter what, the sodomy charges would actually work to his advantage. You don't need a poll to know that the majority of Malaysians do not believe the sodomy charges. Without the benefit of compelling information in court from the prosecution, that means there won't be any persuasive elements to convince the people, including the voters of Permatang Pauh. By nature, people want to be convinced, better still to see a video. But for the time being, until the trial starts, there won't be any fresh information.That will work to Anwar's advantage. The fact that some BN leaders are talking of boycotting the by-election is as good as admitting defeat but the Prime Minister has said that it is not going to happen. The search is now for a local candidate who knows he is fighting a giant. For the time being, it is best that the BN accepts the reality that Anwar is making a comeback to Parliament.

Massive jam, Anwar to appear

Updates: Anwar charged, out on RM20,000 bail
Judge fixes Sept 10 for mention

Massive jams crippled the city as road blocks were set up along the roads leading to the Jalan Duta court complex. Anwar Ibrahim, who lives in nearby Segambut, is expected to show up soon to face the sodomy charges. Reporters, meanwhile, are fighting for the limited seats in the courtroom. While no bail is allowed for sodomy charges, the judge is allowed to exercise his or her discretion. Most lawyers believe that Anwar would probably be allowed bail and freed to campaign in the Permatang Pauh by election. But the question remains how both sides would refrain from using the charges as an issue as it would be subjudice to do so.

Sodomy Two Begins

Nine years ago, as Britain's Queen Elizabeth arrived in town to attend the Commonwealth Games, another drama was unfolding in the capital - Anwar Ibrahim was sacked as Deputy Prime Minister. Dr Mahathir Mohamad described the sacking as a "minor distraction" at a press conference following the sacking. Thousands of Anwar supporters turned up at Dataran Merdeka on Sept 20, 1998, to protest against his arrest, shortly after the Queen left the church nearby. Fast forward, as the world gears up for the Beijing Olympic Games on Aug 8, 2008, we are making world news again with Anwar to be charged for sodomy tomorrow. Sodomy II begins on Friday. It's going to be a messy affair for sure. More dirt, more sordid details will crop up during the trial. It won't be good. Anwar has reiterated that it's a conspiracy and the charges are framed-up, aimed at stopping his career. There will be no winners at the end, only losers, whatever the outcome. For a start, the odds against the Barisan Nasional is even greater in the Permatang Pauh by-election. Anwar wins the perception game, and unless, very compelling evidence comes up, the backlash against the government would be very strong. The Attorney-General's Chambers seems to have taken a bit of a time to get their case going. Plenty are at stakes here.

CNN's China bashing begins

No wonder the Chinese are angry with CNN. As part of its run-up to the Olympics, CNN has been running several negative stories. Yesterday, CNN ran a story about Western sports coaches who were unhappy with the "regimental demands" of the Chinese sports authorities on their participants. There was also a story about how bad the haze situation has become in Beijing and today, China came under criticism for its trade relations with Sudan. Sure, China's human rights records are pretty shameful but hey, can we leave politics aside and talk about sports? After all, the Olympics is about sports events. The Asia Wall Street Journal, in its Aug 4 edition, ran an editorial whacking China with purported criticism from reporters that they couldn't access "sensitive" sites like Amnesty International. Come on lah, if you are a sports reporter or a visitor, surely you won't be assessing such websites. Yes, we do not condone such cyber restrictions but it sounds like the "ang mores" (mat sallehs) are just not too happy with the Chinese Olympics.

More bad news on the economic front

This is something most of us already know but the problem seems to be more pressing. Malaysia is missing out on chances of attracting foreign direct investments (FDIs) due to the current political concerns. Investors should be coming to Malaysia because China and Vietnam have lost some steam but investors are adopting a wait and see attitude. But "wait and see" is no good because we are facing strong competition for foreign money. The same questions are being asked across the region - what's happening to Malaysia? When will the excessive politicking ends? But it doesn't look like it will end - there is the Permatang Pauh by-election, the likelihood of Anwar Ibrahim being charged for sodomy, the Umno and MCA party elections. Can we see some positive development only in Jan or Feb? We would have lost a good four to five months by then to our competitors. There are more concerns - The Edge Financial Daily reported today that Maybank could suffer total losses of up to RM3.5bil if it was forced to sell down the 20% block in PT Bank International Indonesia Tbj (BII) within two years. It's already bad enough that Maybank may have to lose the RM480mil deposit it had paid to Temasek Holdings for the purchase of the Singapore's company's stake of 55% in BII for RM4.9bil. The purchase of the stake had become a talking point in town, probably even in the region, because it was about 23% premium over the market price of the stock then. So the questions remained - who were responsible for this great idea of taking over BII? So, can foreign investors be blamed when they look at the state of Malaysia's economy? The last thing they need - and we need - are politicians who only care about themselves.

Polling after National Day?

The campaigning period in the Permatang Pauh by-election is likely to be a short one. The word is that polling would be held after the National Day with the Elections Commission likely to make sure that the by-election would not be affected by the fasting month. Despite the hype of the media, in the run-up to the by-election, the winner is already known. Short of a miracle, Anwar Ibrahim will be returned as the MP for Permatang Pauh. The only Umno candidate who wants to contest against Anwar is Ezam but he has been ruled out. A local candidate is almost certain but he would probably be a reluctant candidate, too. Cynics would probably regard him as a sacrificial lamb.

Sodomy trial and by-election campaign

The by-election campaign in Permatang Pauh and the sodomy trial, if Anwar Ibrahim is charged, could very well run together. This is the scenario Anwar is bracing for and certainly the media as well. With public perception against the sodomy allegations, Anwar would probably use the issue to his advantage, dismissing it as a conspiracy against his political career - which he has already started. He would use the by-election as a referendum on the allegations. The only thing holding back is that it would be sub judice to discuss any thing related to the trial. But in the heat of a campaign, where anything goes, it would be difficult to stop any discussions, particularly on the Internet. Anwar has certainly moved fast, making preemptive moves, as the Attorney-General's Office dragged its feet on the case. In fact, Anwar does not even need to campaign in Permatang Pauh, which is virtually his fortress. After all, he was the MP in that constituency. He can still attend court hearing and stroll through the by-election with a victory. ISA detainees have won elections without even being present during nominations. Najib Tun Razak has given an honest assessment by saying it would be a tough by-election. Anwar's return to the Dewan Rakyat looks inevitable.